Friday, May 28, 2010

Superior Gold Group - Some economists wary of Chinese economic trends

Some investors have been optimistically looking to emerging nations like China and India to help the global recovery gain momentum in the coming months.

This is because both countries have seen their gross domestic product continue to expand in recent quarters, even as the recession held back growth in much of the rest of the world. An emerging middle class in both nations is seen as having the potential to provide new consumer spending markets for corporations.

Also, manufacturing activity, particularly in China, could help sustain the price of some commodities and strategic metals as economic conditions improve.

However, some economists are warning against becoming overly optimistic about this scenario. In fact, recent months have seen increased concern that China's economy could turn out to be a bubble, citing real estate prices in Beijing and heavy lending activity by banks that could turn out to be ill-advised. In fact, China's government appeared to respond to such concerns earlier this year when it took steps to scale back lending activity.

More recently, a report in the UK's Telegraph newspaper warned that "China's banks are veering out of control," while predicting that the country's "half-reformed" economy will not be able to absorb some $600 billion in loans issued since December.

The Telegraph cited another potential disturbing trend for investors where Shanghai's composite index has risen 70 percent in the past six months while the country's imports have fallen 25 percent over the past year.

The newspaper also noted that 40 percent of China's economy consists of exports, which happened to fall 26 percent in May. Another point cited the increasing tendency of U.S. consumers to save their money, which does not bode well for a sudden and dramatic improvement to China's export figures.

Another red flag for China is the ongoing debt crisis in the euro zone, since this could turn out to be one more blow to its export sector. The euro has fallen considerably in recent weeks, which means consumers could find themselves paying more for Chinese goods at a time when their respective governments are implementing significant new austerity measures.

If Chinese economic growth turns out to be more of an illusion than a reality, it would have a substantial impact on the global economy. Fortunately however, investors have long known that times like these often call for the stability that dealer gold and other precious metals can offer.